RELATION BETWEEN SUMMER TYPHOON FREQUENCY ANOMALIES IN WEST PACIFIC AND ENSO EVENTS AND THE ANOMALOUS ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION CHARACTERISTICS     

周学鸣  魏应植  吴陈锋 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2006,12(1):16-23

By using data of serially numbered typhoons in northwestern Pacific and NOAA OLR data and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data of wind field, based on the statistics and study of the relationship between the calendar years with more (or fewer) summer typhoons and ENSO events, we compared the composites of OLR eigenvectors and tropical summer wind fields during El Nino and La Nina events with more or fewer than normal summer typhoons, respectively. The results show that, in summer, without remarkable systematic anomalies of Mascarene High and Australia High in South Hemisphere, the anomaly of Walker circulation will dominate and follow the rule of ENSO impacts to atmospheric circulation and typhoon frequency. Otherwise, when systematic anomalies of Australia High appear during the El Nino events, circulation anomalies in the South Hemisphere will dominate, and many more typhoons will occur. In 1999, which is a special year of La Nina events, northward and eastward monsoon was induced by the stronger Mascarene High, and fewer typhoons arose. The typhoon source are regions where weak vertical wind shear, warm pool in western Pacific and the area with monsoon troughs are overlapping with each other. Finally, this paper analyzes and compares the source locations and ranges of more (fewer) typhoons in the events of El Nino and La Nina, respectively.  相似文献   

雾对光偏振态影响的实验研究     

LIU Rui-fang  刘瑞芳  王振会  肖韶荣  徐娟 《南京气象学院学报》2006,29(6):815-818

测量了不同人土雾浓度下垂直偏振入射光的透射光强。利用实验数据，分析了垂直、平行方向上透射光强的变化趋势。得出平行偏振分量透射光强大致呈指数下降的趋势，垂直偏振分量透射光强先略微上升而后下降。由退偏振度随雾浓度的变化讨论了退偏产生的原因，指出雾浓度较低时，雾滴可近似视为球形。基于光的偏振特性，从理论上分析并计算得到光在雾中传输时透射、散射光强。实验结果对研究光在雾中传输及分析大气中雾对透射光偏振态的影响有一定的参考价值。  相似文献   

Climate change and North Sea storm surge extremes: an ensemble study of storm surge extremes expected in a changed climate projected by four different regional climate models   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Katja Woth  Ralf Weisse  Hans von Storch 《Ocean Dynamics》2006,56(1):3-15

The coastal zones are facing the prospect of changing storm surge statistics due to anthropogenic climate change. In the present study, we examine these prospects for the North Sea based on numerical modelling. The main tool is the barotropic tide-surge model TRIMGEO (Tidal Residual and Intertidal Mudflat Model) to derive storm surge climate and extremes from atmospheric conditions. The analysis is carried out by using an ensemble of four 30-year atmospheric regional simulations under present-day and possible future-enhanced greenhouse gas conditions. The atmospheric regional simulations were prepared within the EU project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects). The research strategy of PRUDENCE is to compare simulations of different regional models driven by the same global control and climate change simulations. These global conditions, representative for 1961–1990 and 2071–2100 were prepared by the Hadley Center based on the IPCC A2 SRES scenario. The results suggest that under future climatic conditions, storm surge extremes may increase along the North Sea coast towards the end of this century. Based on a comparison between the results of the different ensemble members as well as on the variability estimated from a high-resolution storm surge reconstruction of the recent decades it is found that this increase is significantly different from zero at the 95% confidence level for most of the North Sea coast. An exception represents the East coast of the UK which is not affected by this increase of storm surge extremes.  相似文献   

Seismic Moment Tensor Resolution on a Local Scale: Simulated Rockburst and Mine-induced Seismic Events in the Kopanang Gold Mine, South Africa   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Jan Šílený  Alexander Milev 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2006,163(8):1495-1513

Seismic records contain information about the effect of the source as well as the effect of wave propagation through the rock mass. The effect of wave propagation is usually not well known as only simplified models of geological structures are available. Therefore, the information about the source retrieved by inverting seismograms may include errors due to incomplete knowledge of the rock mass along the propagation path, which in turn cause a distortion in the calculated moment tensor (MT). The distortion of the MT on a local scale was observed by inverting records of a simulated rockburst conducted at the Kopanang gold mine in South Africa. A dominant isotropic component of the explosive characteristics was found from the inversion. The deviatoric components retrieved from the blast are spurious. A test of their stability indicated that they are not significant, assuming an uncertainty above 5% for velocities and 10% for attenuation within the homogeneous model available for the mine. Thus, the retrieval of the MT from records of local networks in mines using a homogeneous model of the rock mass seems to be feasible. However, the homogeneous model of the rock mass can only be applied to close stations, within a few kilometers of the source. The seismic records from distant stations were too complex to be modelled by a homogeneous rock mass. Records of six mine-induced seismic events recorded at the Kopanang gold mine were also inverted. A vertical linear dipole along the pressure (P) axis was found for three of the events, suggesting a pillar burst. The mechanism of two events contains an isotropic implosion together with a nearly vertical dip-slip, and seems to indicate a combination of a cavity collapse with a down dip-slip along a nearly vertical fault. One event corresponds to a dipole along the tensional (T) axis. However, it is vertical, thus its association with tensile faulting of the hangingwall is uncertain.  相似文献   

High precision locations of LP events on Mt. Etna: Reconstruction of the fluid-filled volume     

S. Gambino 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2006,50(4):663-674

During 1991–93 at Mount Etna, long-period (LP) events occurring in swarms characterized the evolution of the eruption. The presence of multiplets i.e. groups of events with similar waveform signatures, has been recognized within this activity. Traditional techniques for locating LP events do not allow obtaining reliable hypocenters, which have only succeeded in placing earthquakes in a roughly 1 km² area slightly east of the Mt. Etna Northeast Crater. Hypocenters have been relocated in two steps: the absolute location has been improved using Thurber’s code and a complex 3D velocity model; a highly precise relative location has been applied on multiplets to define the source geometry. 3D locations and high precision analysis suggest that during the 1991–93 eruption the resonator producing LP events was a part of the uppermost Northeast Crater conduit, measuring 210 meters in height and 45–50 meters in diameter.  相似文献   

2004年3月18日高纬磁层顶多重通量管事件分析          下载免费PDF全文

魏勇  肖池阶  濮祖荫  洪明华  万卫星  刘振兴 《地球物理学报》2006,49(4):929-935

2004-03-18 23:10～23:50 UT期间，“双星（Double Star）”探测一号卫星（TC 1）在向阳面磁层顶高纬晨侧由内向外穿越磁层顶，其时TC_1的GSM坐标为 (75RE, -55RE, -54RE), RE为地球半径.穿越过程中TC_1观测到了8个通量管和1个磁通量传输事件（FTEs）.在此期间Cluster星簇位于向阳面太阳风内，其GSM坐标为(180RE, -31RE, -62RE)，其4颗卫星监测到行星际磁场（IMF）的BZ分量持续南向，BＹ有较大的负值.本文的研究表明：TC_1观测到的前7个通量管具有准周期重现性，周期大约是1～4 min，明显小于以前所观测到的FTEs的平均周期(8～11 min)；所有的通量管都具有较强的核心场.本文分别使用最小方差分析法（MVA）和Grad_Shafranov反演方法（GSR）对通量管的轴向进行了分析和对比，发现所有的通量管主轴基本沿晨昏向，结果显示GSR方法在轴向分析上比MVA优越.本文使用GSR方法对通量管的磁场结构进行了分析，恢复出了通量管的磁场在卫星穿越面的结构图；此外，本文还对这次多重通量管事件进行了deHoffmann Teller(HT)分析，结果表明，所有通量管大致朝南极方向运动，均来源于向日面低纬区域.这说明它们可能起源于向日面低纬区，由该区的磁场分量重联产生.  相似文献   

深圳两次大雾天气过程对比分析及预报启示   总被引：16，自引：0，他引：16  

孙石阳谢小敏  张小丽 《广西气象》2006,27(2):8-10,51

2005年2月23-25日和2006年3月6日深圳分别出现了一次大雾天气。从天气学角度对两次大雾过程的形成原因、特点进行对比分析，分析表明：大雾天气需在一定的形势场中出现并维持，近地面层气象要素场的变化会促进大雾的形成、维持和消失，而近地面层风场或温度场的改变除了与其环境、当地气候特征有关外，与大的形势场是分不开的。通过对比，对深圳大雾天气的生消和维持机制有一定了解，对预报本地大雾天气有指示作用，也为其它地区特别是沿海地区雾的预报提供借鉴。  相似文献   

An Improved Mellor–Yamada Level-3 Model: Its Numerical Stability and Application to a Regional Prediction of Advection Fog     

Mikio Nakanishi  Hiroshi Niino 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2006,119(2):397-407

This note describes a numerically stable version of the improved Mellor–Yamada (M–Y) Level-3 model proposed by Nakanishi and Niino [Nakanishi, M. and Niino, H.: 2004, Boundary-Layer Meteorol. 112, 1–31] and demonstrates its application to a regional prediction of advection fog. In order to ensure the realizability for the improved M–Y Level-3 model and its numerical stability, restrictions are imposed on computing stability functions, on L/q, the temperature and water-content variances, and their covariance, where L is the master length scale and q ²/2 the turbulent kinetic energy per unit mass. The model with these restrictions predicts vertical profiles of mean quantities such as temperature that are in good agreement with those obtained from large-eddy simulation of a radiation fog. In a regional prediction, it also reasonably reproduces the satellite-observed horizontal distribution of an advection fog.  相似文献   

河西走廊地质历史中宋辽干冷期灾变事件及其影响          下载免费PDF全文

赫明林  曹兴山  曹炳媛 《甘肃地质》2006,15(1):10-18

宋辽寒冷干旱期的急剧降温,使河西地区降水量迅速减少,气候变得更为干旱。植被枯萎,风暴、沙暴、尘暴、火灾、旱灾、饥荒等灾害事件频繁发生,从而引发了一系列生态环境问题和战争动乱,对中国政治、社会、经济、文化产生重大影响。依据历史资料和考古研究成果及地质记录中“事件标志层”层位、年代,确定宋辽寒冷干旱期发生于公元1000~1050年,发展于公元1050~1100年,强盛于公元1100~1320年,消亡于公元1320~1335年。  相似文献   

大雾天气对城市环境中空气质量的影响及危害     

王海艳  熊坤  孔剑君  张艳玲  张时英 《河南气象》2007,(Z1)

商丘市的大雾多形成在大陆高压型、冷锋前暖区型、均压场型、(低压)倒槽型天气形势中。空气中的污染物不仅增加了水汽凝结核,那些可溶性气溶胶还降低了饱和水汽压,使空气中的水汽更容易饱和,因此被污染的空气更容易形成雾。而大雾天气抑制了近地面层污染物的垂直扩散,加剧了城市污染。  相似文献